Nintendo Switch 2 2025 Sales Forecast Unveiled

According to gaming analyst Mat Piscatella, the Nintendo Switch 2 is projected to sell roughly 4.3 million units in 2025. For comparison, the original Nintendo Switch sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding the company's initial forecasts. To meet overwhelming consumer demand at that time, Nintendo airlifted additional Switch units into the market. Many hope Nintendo has since refined its supply chain planning to better handle similar demand surges for the upcoming console.

Eager gamers continue to await an official announcement for Nintendo's next system. The Switch 2 frequently trends on social media due to widespread anticipation, though this online buzz may not directly correlate with sales. Several critical factors will likely determine the console's market performance in 2025, assuming it launches that year. The release timing and the strength of its initial game lineup appear particularly crucial.

Circana video game analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts US Switch 2 sales of 4.3 million units in 2025, provided the console launches during the first half of the year. Many industry observers anticipate a Switch 2 release by April 2025, positioned to capitalize on the summer shopping season and Japan's Golden Week holiday period, both typically strong for console sales.

Analyst Forecasts 4.3 Million Switch 2 Sales for 2025

With an official announcement seemingly imminent (though nothing is certain), my projections show Nintendo's next hardware selling 4.3 million units in the US during 2025 (assuming a first-half launch). This would represent about one-third of all video game console hardware units sold for the year (excluding portable PC devices).— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella further elaborated that he expects the Switch 2 to capture approximately one-third of all US video game hardware unit sales, excluding portable PC systems like the Steam Deck and ROG Ally. He also anticipates potential supply constraints for the Switch 2 following a wave of initial high demand, though he remains uncertain about the manufacturing capacity Nintendo has secured. The company may have proactively stockpiled components to avoid the product shortages that affected the original Switch and PS5 launches.

While Piscatella expects solid Switch 2 sales, he predicts the PlayStation 5 will maintain its position as the top-selling game console in the US. Although the Switch 2 benefits from substantial consumer excitement, the PS5 has several major upcoming releases, including the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, currently slated for 2025. Such exclusive titles could drive significant hardware sales for Sony's platform. Nevertheless, if the Switch 2 launches with impressive hardware specifications and a compelling game library, it could still emerge as the market leader.

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