Nintendo Switch 2 2025年売上台数予測を発表
主要なポイント
- 業界分析によると、Switch 2は2025年に米国で430万台を販売すると予測されており（前半発売を想定）。
- Switch 2は強力な販売が期待されるものの、PS5が依然として米国ゲーム機売上台数をリードする可能性がある。
- Nintendo Switch 2への市場の期待は大きいが、商業的成功は発売時期、ハードウェア性能、ゲームライブラリの競争力に依存する。
ゲーム業界アナリストのマット・ピスカテラ氏によると、Nintendo Switch 2は2025年に約430万台を販売すると予測されている。比較として、初代Nintendo Switchは2017年末までに480万台を販売し、同社の当初予想を上回った。当時の圧倒的な消費者需要に対応するため、任天堂は追加のSwitch本体を空輸で市場に投入した。多くの関係者は、任天堂がその後サプライチェーン計画を改善し、次世代機に対する同様の需要急増にうまく対応できるようになっていることを期待している。
熱心なゲーマーたちは、任天堂の次期システムに関する正式発表を今も待ち続けている。Switch 2は広範な期待からソーシャルメディアで頻繁にトレンド入りしているが、このオンライン上の話題性が直接売上に結びつくとは限らない。2025年に発売されると仮定した場合、コンソールの市場でのパフォーマンスはいくつかの重要な要因によって決定されると見られる。特に、発売時期とローンチタイトルの強度が極めて重要であるようだ。
Circanaのビデオゲームアナリスト、マット・ピスカテラ氏は、同機が2025年前半に発売されることを条件に、米国でのSwitch 2の販売台数を430万台と予測している。多くの業界関係者は、2025年4月までにSwitch 2が発売され、コンソール販売が通常好調な夏季商戦と日本のゴールデンウィークの時期を狙って投入されると予想している。
アナリスト、2025年にSwitch 2が430万台販売されると予測
正式発表が差し迫っているように見える（とはいえ確実なことは何もない）中、私の予測では、任天堂の次期ハードウェアは2025年に米国で430万台（前半発売を想定）販売される見込みです。これは年間のビデオゲームハードウェア全販売台数（ポータブルPCデバイスを除く）の約3分の1に相当します。—— マット・ピスカテラ (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z
ピスカテラ氏はさらに、Steam DeckやROG AllyのようなポータブルPCシステムを除く、米国のビデオゲームハードウェア販売台数全体の約3分の1をSwitch 2が占めると予想していることを詳述した。また、初期の高需要の波に続いてSwitch 2に供給制約が生じる可能性もあると予想する一方で、任天堂が確保した製造能力については不確実性があるとしている。同社は、初代SwitchやPS5の発売時に影響した品不足を回避するため、部品を事前に備蓄している可能性がある。
ピスカテラ氏はSwitch 2の堅調な販売を期待しているものの、PlayStation 5が米国でのトップセールスゲーム機の地位を維持すると予測している。Switch 2は相当な消費者の興奮に支えられているとはいえ、PS5には現在2025年発売予定の大規模タイトル『グランド・セフト・オートVI』を含む、いくつかの主要な今後のリリースが控えている。このような独占タイトルは、ソニーのプラットフォームにとって大きなハードウェア販売の推進力となり得る。それでも、Switch 2が印象的なハードウェア仕様と魅力的なゲームライブラリを携えて発売されれば、市場のリーダーとなる可能性は残されている。
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