Nintendo's Cautious Outlook on Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Concerns

Nintendo has released what many industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2, citing continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and their potential impact on production and pricing. During its latest financial report, the company projected it will sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million games within its current fiscal year, which concludes on March 31, 2026. The Switch 2 is scheduled to launch globally on June 5.

In its financial statement, Nintendo noted that its forecast assumes current U.S. tariff rates—which took effect on April 10—remain unchanged through the end of the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that fluctuations in these rates could affect its projections. “We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions,” the company stated, emphasizing its commitment to flexibility in the face of external economic pressures.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, described the 15 million unit forecast as cautious, suggesting that Nintendo may be accounting for uncertainties related to tariffs, manufacturing timelines, and potential price sensitivity, despite strong pre-order momentum. He further noted on social media that if tariff reductions or eliminations occur, Nintendo might revise its forecast upward. However, he warned that existing supply chain disruptions and the looming possibility of increased tariffs are creating a challenging climate for the console’s launch.

It's worth noting that achieving 15 million sales in its first year would position the Switch 2 among the most successful console launches in history. This figure surpasses the original Nintendo Switch’s first-year sales of 14.87 million units, setting a high bar even under uncertain global trade conditions.

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The demand for the Switch 2 appears to be exceptionally high. After an initial delay linked to tariff-related logistics, pre-orders officially opened on April 24 with the console priced at $449.99 — and consumer response was nothing short of explosive. Additionally, Nintendo issued a notice to U.S. customers who placed pre-orders via the My Nintendo Store, cautioning that delivery by the release date cannot be guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.

For more details on how and where to secure your Nintendo Switch 2 before launch, check out IGN’s comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.